2027 and the “sakamanje” of Party Primary Elections – by Adekunle Adekoya

I am deliberately moving away from discussing insecurity matters, which are dear to me as they touch on our survival as a nation of free peoples, to discuss another issue that is just as life‑threatening. That issue concerns politics, politicking, and politicians. The problems are not new; just as malaria is not new to us here, many overlook that new strains of the malaria parasite continue to emerge and the global pharmaceutical industry is constantly in overdrive to develop drugs that can achieve lasting cures.

Those of the Independence generation, like me, will remember anti‑malaria drugs such as Nivaquine and Resochin, which were popular in the 1970s. Today, those drugs are no longer in use. The malaria parasites have mutated and now inflict greater damage on the human body, and as a result, today’s anti‑malaria therapies are far more differentiated. More importantly, the makers of the drugs are no longer from Western Europe, but from South‑East Asia. Quite instructive, if you ask me.

But this is not about malaria; it is about politics, politicians, and politicking.

Last week, former Head of State General Yakubu Gowon entered our consciousness when he launched a book titled My Life of Duty & Allegiance in Abuja. Again, this is not about his book, but about one of the remarks he made while in office as Head of State. Gowon had promised that the country would return to democratic civilian rule in 1976. However, in his nationwide broadcast on October 1, 1974, he stated that the political class had not learned from past mistakes and indefinitely postponed the return to civilian rule. A quote attributed to him was: “The politicians have learned nothing and forgotten nothing.” It is generally believed that this statement by Gowon was a contributing factor to his eventual overthrow in 1976 in a putsch that produced late Murtala Muhammed as Head of State.

You might recall that the politicians of that era were those we wished never died. Fathers of modern Nigeria such as Chief Obafemi Awolowo, Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe, Alhaji Shehu Shagari, Alhaji Waziri Ibrahim, Alhaji Aminu Kano, and many others were still around. And these were the people Gowon said had not learned from their past. Truly, it must be conceded that it was the activities of politicians that truncated the First Republic. With events in the Western Region that precipitated the crisis of 1965 and the putsch of January 1966 that ignited the civil war, Gowon may have been right.

Fast forward to now. What do you think of today’s politicians?

The optics from party primaries which are being concluded this week leave much to be desired. New definitions are being given to various words such as fraud, malpractice, rigging, etc. A friend remarked that votes of the party members in many places were counted “in geometric progression.” I asked him to explain, and he simply showed me a video in which a party official was seen counting people on a voting queue…1, 2, 3, 20, 30, 40, ….” I stared in disbelief.

But this geometric vote counting was poignantly buttressed by the APC primary election in Oyo State. Two popular contenders were in the race. The first is Adebayo Adelabu, who had resigned his appointment as Minister of Power, and Sharafadeen Alli, a former Secretary to the Oyo State Government when incumbent Olubadan, Oba Rashidi Ladoja was governor. At the end of the day, the tally of votes announced was 578,143 votes for Sharafadeen Alli and 19,193 votes for Adelabu. Of course, Adelabu cried foul, alleging fraud, rigging, and all manner of malpractices. He averred that Oyo State branch of the APC has 157,000 registered party members, wondering where Alli’s 578,143 votes came from.

Those are questions for the APC leadership, not me. But in reality, we will all recall that the APC National Chairman, Professor Nentawe Yilwatda, not only described the APC primaries nationwide as successful, he also said it is a dress rehearsal for 2027.

In a recent media outing, Yilwatda said: “We have about 12.9 million registered voters that were submitted to INEC. Let me give you data. APC submitted 12.9 million registered voters. PDP submitted 2.4 million registered voters. ADC submitted 1.6 million registered voters. Labour Party submitted 1.3 million registered voters. NDC submitted 700,000 registered members,” he said.

Fellow countrymen and women, you have been put on notice. I can tell you that by January 17, 2027, the day after the presidential elections of January 16, you will be told that all registered members of the APC voted and re‑elected the president by landslide. By January next year, none of the 12.9 million registered APC members would have died or relocated, or otherwise been unable to vote, just as 91.8% or 10,999,162 of them all came out to vote for the president to give him a second term ticket. This is geometric vote‑counting, the latest wave of sakamanje to hit Nigerian politics like a tsunami. But like Gowon said, our politicians have learned nothing and forgotten nothing. If anything, they have gotten more virulent than the operators of the First Republic. We will all see where they are taking us, by God. TGIF.

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