US warns Ebola outbreak on scale of largest ‘is possible’

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Friday called for robust public‑health measures to curb the current Ebola outbreak, warning that, according to its models, the epidemic could reach the scale of the 2014 West Africa outbreak if left unchecked.

The 2014 outbreak resulted in more than 28,000 confirmed cases and over 11,000 deaths.

“That scale is possible,” said Jason Asher, director of the CDC’s Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics, during a press briefing.

The CDC’s projections were published in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report documents released on Friday.

The agency noted that the worst outcomes could be avoided if “a larger proportion of patients were identified, isolated, and treated.”

It added that “the public health response to control this outbreak will likely need to be of similar magnitude to the response for the 2014‑2016 West Africa Ebola outbreak.”

Asher clarified that the models are “not a forecast” but “a planning tool” designed to support action, not to generate alarm.

They are based on four possible intervention scenarios, ranging from poor (20 percent) to extremely high (95 percent) levels of isolation and treatment.

Under a scenario where isolation levels are considered poor, with no other interventions, the CDC estimates a 65 percent chance that cases will exceed 20,000 within three months.

Satish Pillai, the CDC manager for the Ebola response, said “the total individuals that are infected and requiring isolation remains unclear.” He added that the situation on the ground suggests isolation levels are currently on the lower end.

On the same day, the World Health Organization and the African Union’s public‑health agency announced that $518 million would be needed over the next six months to fight the deadly Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo) and neighboring countries.

The outbreak was declared on May 15 in northeastern DR Congo, but the rare Bundibugyo species of the Ebola virus is believed to have been circulating for some time before that.

According to the WHO’s latest figures, there are 381 confirmed cases in the DRC, including 64 deaths.

The outbreak has affected three provinces, with the epicenter in Ituri. The Africa CDC reports that Ituri accounts for 90 percent of confirmed cases and 76 percent of confirmed deaths.

Across the northeastern border in Uganda, there have been 16 confirmed cases, including one death.

Seven Ebola patients in the DRC and two in Uganda have recovered.