Jonathan Faces Tinubu in the Most Challenging Election Battle, by Dele Sobowale

‘2027: Jonathan Weighs ADC Option Amid Comeback Reports’ – News Report, October 5, 2025.

“All political parties die at last of swallowing their own lies” – Dr John Arbuthnot, 1667-1735.

Former President Jonathan is considered by some analysts to be the most formidable opponent President Tinubu could face in the 2027 election. Other leading candidates are reportedly struggling to decide whether to run as presidential or vice‑presidential contenders if they form alliances. Supporters of Obidients, Atiku, and Kwankwaso are similarly uncertain about running alone.

Among those experiencing political confusion, members of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) appear particularly misguided. They continue to view the PDP as a viable political force, despite evidence that many former PDP leaders have joined the All Progressives Congress (APC). Those who wish to leave the APC may consider the African Democratic Congress (ADC) rather than returning to the PDP.

Jonathan has reportedly been exploring a move to the ADC, which some view as a strategic choice. He may be positioned as a strong candidate for the new party. The following sections outline potential advantages Jonathan could leverage against the APC.

Economy in 2015 and 2027

 “Even God cannot change the past” – Agathon, 447-401 BC.

In surveys of several hundred Nigerians, respondents consistently reported that they were better off in 2015 than in the present or the foreseeable future. The year 2015 is often cited as the low point of Jonathan’s administration. This perception could make it difficult for Tinubu to convince voters that he can manage the economy more effectively than the current government. Jonathan could assemble a team of economic advisers to counter this narrative.

Key economic indicators from the period support Jonathan’s case. The average annual GDP growth from 2010 to 2015 was about 5.5 %. In Jonathan’s worst full year, 2014, GDP growth exceeded the average for the eight years of Buhari’s administration and the two full years of Tinubu’s government. The exchange rate was under N200 per US$1 when Jonathan left office; it has risen to around N1,500 per US$1 today. Rice prices were approximately N8,000 per 50 kg bag in 2014, rising to N60,000 per 50 kg bag. Petrol prices were about N240 per litre in 2014, now ranging from N850 to N1,200 per litre. These figures illustrate the significant inflation and currency depreciation that have occurred since Jonathan’s tenure.

Some observers argue that Nigeria was not the poorest country in the world in 2015, a status that emerged after the APC’s “change” agenda.

“Good government…has for its objects the protection of every person within its care in the greatest liberty consistent with the good order of society…’’ – US President Grover Cleveland, 1837-1908

Regarding security, Jonathan has acknowledged the failure to prevent the kidnapping of the Chibok girls, a tragedy that continues to affect the nation. He could argue that widespread insecurity, including herdsmen violence, was largely confined to the North during his administration, whereas it is now a nationwide issue. Some security threats that exist today were largely unknown in 2014.

On infrastructure, Jonathan could point out that many roads built during his administration, such as the Benin–Sapele, Owo–Ifon, Calabar–Itu, Lagos–Kogi, Ibadan–Ife, Jebba–Mokwa, and Abuja–Kaduna routes, have deteriorated over the past twelve years under the APC.

Fuel subsidy removal: 2012 remembered

 “Life does not always move in a straight line. It is sometimes like a boomerang.”

Jonathan may focus on the 2012 fuel subsidy removal policy, which was opposed by former Governor Fayemi and others in the now-defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). Critics argue that Nigeria lost significant revenue due to fraud associated with the subsidy over the eleven years from 2012 to 2023. Jonathan could challenge Tinubu’s claim of full credit for the policy.

Most acceptable southern candidate to the North

Some northern voters may view Jonathan as a preferable candidate compared to other southern contenders. Peter Obi has pledged to serve only one term, but skepticism remains about his commitment. Jonathan, who has served one term, could position himself as a safe southern choice if he decides to run again.

What is to be done?

 ‘2027 Presidential Poll: Court asked to restrain Jonathan, INEC’ – VANGUARD, Tuesday, October 7, 2025.

 “It is quite impossible for those who want to gain power to avoid getting rid of those people who are most likely to form an opposition” – Critias, c404 BC.

One strategy to prevent a direct contest between Tinubu and Jonathan would be to challenge Jonathan’s eligibility in court. A recent lawsuit has been filed, though Jonathan has not yet announced his intention to run or the party he would represent. The suit’s timing has been criticized as premature.

President Tinubu has taken an offensive stance, with Bayo Onanuga acting as his spokesperson. Some observers question the approach, but political dynamics are described as a war without firearms, where all tactics are considered fair.

Jonathan’s next steps would benefit from consultation with constitutional lawyers to assess his eligibility. A former president is expected to conduct himself with decorum and avoid actions that could lead to dismissal by the Supreme Court. He may also consider maintaining a statesmanlike profile rather than engaging in partisan politics.

It remains uncertain whether Jonathan will run again. If he does, the contest could be intense, with potential support from high‑profile politicians in the South‑East and South‑South who have moved to the APC.

For some observers, the upcoming election will be a significant political battle.

Seconds out!!!

· NOTE: This article was once published in October 2025.

Follow me on Facebook @ J Israel Biola.

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