FMDA projects April inflation at 16.42% amid rising fuel and food prices.

By Yinka Kolawole

The Financial Market Dealers Association (FMDA) has projected that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate will rise to 16.42 percent year‑on‑year in April 2026. This marks a reversal of the recent trend of moderation, as rising food prices, higher energy costs and deteriorating global commodity conditions continue to exert pressure on domestic prices.

According to the FMDA’s April 2026 Inflation Forecast report, the projected figure represents an increase from the 15.38 percent recorded in March 2026 and is the first consecutive monthly acceleration in annual inflation since mid‑2025.

The report notes that inflation had steadily declined from a peak of 27.35 percent in March 2025 to 15.06 percent in February 2026 before the recent upward trend emerged.

On a month‑on‑month basis, headline inflation is forecast at 2.78 percent in April, lower than the 4.18 percent recorded in March but still higher than the broader disinflation trend observed in the second half of 2025.

FMDA attributes the projected rise mainly to sustained pressure from food and energy prices, as well as tightening global commodity markets.

Average Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) prices increased to N1,322.50 in April from N1,208.38 in March, a 9.44 percent rise. Although the rate of increase slowed compared to the 37.35 percent jump in March, higher fuel prices continue to affect transportation and production costs.

The domestic food price index also climbed to 3.69 points in April from 3.60 points in March, driven by price rises in key staples. Yam recorded the highest increase at 3.98 percent, while watermelon, maize, millet and sorghum also posted moderate price rises during the period.

Despite these inflationary pressures, FMDA noted that some factors could help moderate the overall impact. The naira appreciated by 1.36 percent on average to N1,361.22 per dollar in April, compared with N1,379.98 per dollar in March, and the pace of fuel price increases slowed.

The report warns that worsening global commodity conditions could sustain inflationary pressures in the months ahead.

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