Governor Makinde’s 2027 Gamble

By Tunde Rahman

The 2027 presidential race is gaining momentum. On Thursday, May 14, 2026, Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State formally announced his candidacy at the historic Mapo Hall in Ibadan, a ceremony that was reportedly financed with Oyo State taxpayers’ money.

Makinde’s decision to run is not unexpected; observers had long speculated about his ambitions given his history of controversial moves. What remained unclear was the platform he would adopt, especially as the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) remains embroiled in internal conflict and his faction holds a weak position in the party.

Senator Shehu Sani has argued that during President Muhammadu Buhari’s tenure, many Northerners felt reluctant to challenge him, believing the region was entitled to eight years in office. While Sani’s comparison is vivid, it does not negate Makinde’s right to declare his candidacy.

President Bola Tinubu has welcomed the announcement and will face Makinde on January 15, 2027, should the latter succeed in advancing to the final stages. Makinde’s entry raises the number of potential candidates to around six, including Tinubu, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi, former Minister of Transportation Rotimi Amaechi, Alhaji Mohammed Hayatudeen, and possibly former President Goodluck Jonathan.

Makinde stated he will run on a PDP-APM alliance platform, though the exact nature of that alliance remains unclear. He is a leader of the Turaki-led faction of the PDP, which is still contesting for control, while Bauchi State Governor Bala Mohammed also belongs to the Allied People’s Movement.

During a rally he called “Unity Mega Rally,” Makinde called for national unity against what he described as “one‑party rule,” suggesting that opposition forces can be united.

At an All Opposition Summit held in Ibadan on April 25, 2026, Makinde made statements that were described as reckless and threatening, warning President Tinubu and the governing APC of potential violence and referencing the “wild, wild West” of the First Republic that began in Ibadan.

Analysts, including Segun Ayobolu of the “Illuminations” column, condemned the comparison, noting that the present political climate, where parties and opposition politicians freely assemble and campaign, differs markedly from the violence that plagued the Western Region in 1964‑65 and led to the collapse of the First Republic.

The 1964 Federal Election and 1965 Western Regional Elections were marred by widespread electoral fraud, ballot‑box snatching, voter intimidation, and violence carried out by members of the late Chief Ladoke Akintola’s NNDP‑NPC Alliance, which angered voters and made them feel their votes were ineffective.

There is no indication that the 2027 election will be disputed, except in the imagination of some, such as Governor Makinde.

Despite political controversies, many in Oyo State acknowledge that Makinde has delivered infrastructure improvements. However, balancing political ambition with policy remains crucial, and grandstanding alone does not constitute a virtue.

At the summit in Ibadan, opposition politicians resolved to field a single presidential candidate in 2027, but the impact of Makinde’s entry on that plan is uncertain.

Makinde is simultaneously seeking to secure his successor in Oyo State for 2027 while pursuing the presidency.

His prospects are uncertain, as he lacks a strong base outside Ibadan. He claims to represent the PDP‑APM alliance, yet his support in the Niger and northern regions may be limited to his connection with Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi State.

Makinde has reportedly severed ties with several allies who helped him in office, including Senator Hosea Agboola (alias Alleluya), Chief Bisi Ilaka, and former political adviser Hon. Babs Oduyoye. His relationship with former Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike has also deteriorated, with Wike reportedly leaving Port Harcourt to support Makinde’s re‑election in Ibadan during the 2023 elections.

As the saying goes, “to thyself be true.” Makinde’s campaign may be viewed as a political gamble, and concerns remain that a loss could damage his reputation, legacy, influence, and standing within the Yoruba community.

*Rahman is Senior Special Assistant to President Tinubu on Media & Special Duties.