Why cooking gas will stay scarce and expensive

• As domestic demand exceeds supply

• Producers focus on export markets

• Dealers outline a range of constraints

• Outlook remains uncertain – Industry experts

By Udeme Akpan, Energy Editor

Although Nigeria holds Africa’s largest proven gas reserves and has seen gas production rise, households and industries now face significant shortages of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), commonly known as cooking gas. The shortage is also driving up retail prices.

Financial Vanguard reports that some producers prioritize exporting LPG rather than supplying the domestic market. Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) show that 62 percent of total gas output in the first two months of this year was exported, leaving only 38 percent for local consumption.

Industry analysts say that the supply imbalance, which persisted while many Nigerians did not use gas for cooking, can no longer be sustained. They argue that the current supply structure is destabilising the domestic market.

Rising demand continues to outstrip supply, according to the latest industry report, “Nigeria LPG Production & Supply Matrix (2023‑2026).” The report estimates that national consumption of cooking gas will rise by 20 percent to 1.8 million metric tonnes in 2026, up from 1.5 million metric tonnes in 2023. Estimated national supply is projected to reach between 1.55 million and 1.65 million metric tonnes in 2026.

These shortages occur despite increased production following the entry of Dangote Refinery into the supply chain. Even with measures to address infrastructure deficits, improve domestic supply incentives, and strengthen investment conditions, the country may continue to experience gas shortages.

He said: “The combined contribution of NLNG, Dangote, Kwale Hydrocarbon, NPDC Ologbo, Pan Ocean, Seplat, PNG Gas, Greenville and other processors has significantly boosted Nigeria’s cooking gas output.”

“Nigeria now has the technical capacity to become largely self‑sufficient in LPG supply, but additional gas‑processing projects must be brought on stream, domestic gas infrastructure must be expanded, more storage terminals must be commissioned, and the nation’s LPG adoption policies must be sustained.”

Analysts warn that unless Nigeria rapidly expands gas‑processing infrastructure, storage capacity, and domestic supply incentives, the country may remain trapped in cooking gas poverty despite its vast gas wealth.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the price of cooking gas rose 335 percent to N1,741 per kilogram in 2026, from N400 per kilogram in 2016, driven by limited supply and other market forces. The price increased to N500 per kilogram in 2017, then to N600, N680, N800, N950, N900, N1,000, N1,450, N1,630 and N1,741 per kilogram in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026, respectively.

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