Which choice will you make in the upcoming election?

At the close of the parties’ primary election season last month, an estimated sixteen candidates are poised to contest the presidential election next January. The figure is an estimate because the final number is still uncertain. Some parties are fielding more than one candidate, and it is unclear which, if any, will appear on the ballot. A few registered parties are awaiting court rulings that may annul INEC’s election timetable and grant them additional time to nominate candidates. Accord has disowned the man it initially announced as its presidential candidate, while APGA has adopted the candidate of another party, APC. Additionally, some presidential candidates from a PDP faction and an ADC faction are suspected to be placeholders who will later step down for another party’s nominee.

Just as the multiplicity of candidates has created confusion among party “supporters,” who scramble to identify the winning side, the courts, INEC’s website, social media, and the pockets of influential businessmen, ordinary voters are also uncertain about whom to support and why. The “why” precedes the “who”; a voter must first determine the primary motivation for casting a vote and then assess which, if any, of the available candidates aligns with that motive. If the ideal candidate is not on the ballot under a registered political party—or a party faction authorized by the courts and INEC—then the voter cannot cast a vote for that person.

What criteria can a Nigerian voter use to decide in 2027? First, the voter must decide whether the current leadership meets their expectations. Do they want continuity or change? Those favoring continuity must be satisfied with the current security situation or at least the efforts to combat insecurity, insurgency, kidnapping, banditry, and terrorism. They must also evaluate the economy, cost of living, and the government’s political optics, including messaging, empathy, quality of appointments, balance, and anti‑corruption efforts.

Voters who prefer change face a challenge because there are at least a dozen opposition candidates. In every African election where the incumbent was defeated, a minimum condition for success has been opposition unity. Nigeria’s 2015 election demonstrated this when four main opposition parties united. Two months ago, at a meeting in Ibadan, opposition leaders pledged to unite behind a single candidate. They have not yet done so, but a consolidation later this year remains possible.

Some voters choose based on loyalty to a particular political party. Established parties often have advantages over new ones. Voters may support a party out of family tradition, social pressure, personal benefit, or other compelling reasons. During the open‑ballot elections of the Babangida era, a man arrived at a polling station with many supporters to queue for SDP, only to see NRC chieftains bring his sick and elderly father‑in‑law to the front of their queue. He withdrew but urged his supporters to join the SDP line, which they refused, saying they would not if he did not.

Given the ideology‑free, program‑free, open‑entry, open‑exit nature of Nigerian parties, other factors such as region and religion come into sharper focus. The media often mentions a “North‑South rotation principle” for the presidency, but no formal document enshrines it, so it is not firmly embedded in many voters’ minds. One newspaper noted that thirteen current presidential candidates are from the South while two are from the North, even though Gbenga Olawepo‑Hashim was disowned by his Accord Party after reportedly “winning” the primaries.

Some voters are not satisfied with a broad regional label. Northern voters may want to know whether a candidate is a Far Northerner or a Middle Belter, while Southern voters may seek to identify the candidate’s ethnic group—Yoruba, Igbo, or Niger‑Delta. Even within smaller areas, many voters look further down to specific tribes, states, or clans.

Gender can be decisive for some voters. Only one political party, the Young Progressive Party, has fielded a female candidate, Anita Zugwai‑Chukwu. Women comprise roughly half of Nigeria’s 93 million voters. If all women voted for a female candidate while the fourteen male candidates split the rest of the vote, the State House would be filled with fashionable head ties, designer handbags, colourful make‑ups, and high‑heeled shoes by May next year.

Some voters avoid being on the losing side and base their choice on the number of votes a candidate received in a previous election. Since Bola Ahmed Tinubu garnered 8.7 million votes in 2023, Atiku Abubakar 6.9 million, and Peter Obi 6.1 million, many voters hedge their bets by supporting one of them—or all three—regardless of differing circumstances in each election.

For some, a candidate’s running mate is crucial. Peter Obi, the NDC candidate, hopes to benefit from the cult‑like, though geographically narrow, following of his running mate, Rabi’u Kwankwaso, who received 1.4 million votes in 2023. For another candidate, the incumbent who has yet to announce a running mate risks alienating the entire North East or even the whole Far North, potentially handing that support to the ADC candidate.

There are voters, particularly older women, who may vote for a candidate simply because he has contested many times. One candidate on the 2027 ballot has been attempting to become president for 33 years. The story reminds one of an elderly prince in Zamfara who had prayed for 40 years to become the village head, finally saying, “Oh Allah, I have been praying to you for 40 years to make me the village head. Please give it to me so that You will rest and I will rest.”

Some sophisticated voters will wait for candidates’ policies and programs before deciding. They will be waiting for Godot. In 2015, an APC intellectual team rolled out an ambitious program to be completed within three months, only for the party to abandon it once in power. One candidate’s most famous inauguration decision—to abolish the fuel subsidy—was not included in his election platform. The most solemn promise, to provide a stable power supply, remains unfinished.

When candidates lack clear programs, they resort to banalities such as good looks, flamboyant dress, and the beauty of their wives. In 1983, Mohammed Abubakar Rimi climbed the podium and declared that all Nigerian women would vote for the NPP because of the handsome looks of Jim Nwobodo and himself. Many voters were dazzled; standing on an Awka street that day, I was nearly blinded by the shine of Nwobodo’s ring as he waved from inside his car. Everyone around me was happy; “It is Jim’s diamond ring!”

Many voters are also captivated by dazzling oratory. In this election cycle, however, there are no dazzling orators. No man of timber and caliber like K.O. Mbadiwe; no philosopher king such as Bola Ige; no fiery speaker like Aliyu Sabo Bakin Zuwo; no master of Greek and Latin like Abdulkadir Young‑Sidi; and no Yusuf Maitama Sule who can repeat the same point in twenty different ways.

The final and, for many voters, the most decisive criterion for choosing a candidate is the “Stomach Infrastructure”: the Indomie, rice, salt, and sugar distributed by campaign workers from house to house the night before the election.