SEGUN ODEGBAMI: Who wins – Spain or Argentina? 

The curtains will be drawn on the 2026 FIFA World Cup tomorrow.  

The 104 football battles fought amongst 48 countries will come to a most befitting climax. The two teams at the finish line are amongst the 7 that have previously won the World Cup, maintaining a tradition that only a few countries in the world can, and have managed to win in history. 

Another useful tradition to note is that the coveted trophy is not won by the element of luck, or by accident. It is success earned through very difficult matches from start till the end. 

In that vein, every previous World Cup has been won by a country on the merit of consistent performances through several different and challenging matches! 

That’s the simplest explanation for why Spain (1 time-winners) and Argentina (3 time-winners) are the two countries to have survived the turbulence of the past four weeks till the end, a period that held the entire world in the grip of uncommon drama, suspense, fun, exhilarating games and unpredictable matches, with many last-minute dramatic matches such as have never been experienced in World Cup history! 

The past one month has been a real feast of the good, the bad and the best of football in the world. 

Once again, the FIFA World Cup demonstrated its power to unite the world, totally immune from usual cultural, social, economic, political and even religious differences. That is the power of the single most followed human activity on earth (with over 5 billion spectators), a most lucrative project ( $11billion Dollars to be shared amongst participants), and an event that put every other global issue in the background for a period. When the matches are going on every thing else pales in significance. 

So, at the end of 102 matches, Spain (current European Champions) and Argentina (defending World Cup and South American champions), are the last two standing. We are left with an epic confrontation between the best of European football and the best of South American football. 

Another unwritten tradition is that Europe does not win the championship played in the Southern hemisphere, and vice versa. This time, it is the Atlantic Ocean that separates the two countries. Both are in the same hemisphere. 

So, who will win?

I am consulting my ‘mathematical’ oracle, and placing a wager. 

My calculations are simple and straightforward. 

Spain played their last and best match against France, the team tipped by most to win the Championship before it started. France were brought down to earth by a team that put up a display considered by several analysts as ‘perfect’. Spain played their best game in that match, without showing any weakness in any department. They outpaced, out-passed, out-ran and out-played France, winning the match rather too-easily. They are a well-oiled machine. 

That performance should ordinarily make Spain favorites to win the encounter with Argentina. 

But Argentina are not France. They may not have the number and array of individually and exceptionally gifted stars like France, fully-loaded with a frontline of goalscorers in Mbape, Dembele, Oliseh, and so on, but what they have in one man may be enough to take them over the hill. 

Argentina have a hardworking, organised army of endlessly running, hard-tackling, very experienced squad with a do or die attitude. The team is conducted by the most gifted football player in the world, a One-man riot squad, an aging, quiet and unassuming personality. This football genius defies all the common denominators. 

Lionel Messi, makes all the difference in the Argentine team. The other ten players play for him, around him and with him as arrowhead. He struts and strolls around the field to the utter frustration of opposing coaches that have not successfully worked out how to neutralise such a player. 

No team has ‘stationed’ a permanent player to follow and mark him throughout 90 minutes. That means   disrupting the opposing team’s regular strategy, a costly sacrifice to make for all the opposing coaches, so far. 

It does not matter that Messi wins the 2026 trophy. Already, with his performance, so far, the goals he has scored, the manner he has single handedly taken his team from the brink of defeat to victory, match after match, meandering through impossible situations, win or lose, he has earned for himself after this 2026 FIFA World Cup the indisputable title of ‘Greatest Player of All Time -GOAT! 

So, who wins?

I will not bet against Lionel Messi!