Nigeria's oil production: We need to do more

Nigeria’s recent rise in crude oil output to about 1.66 million barrels per day is a positive development, but it should not be viewed as a decisive triumph. After years of steep decline caused by oil theft, pipeline sabotage, the exit of foreign oil companies and policy uncertainty, the recovery merely indicates that the Federal Government has begun to implement measures it had previously neglected. Praise should therefore be measured and accompanied by clear conditions.

The gains stem from tighter security around oil facilities, improved pipeline monitoring and the long‑delayed implementation of key provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA). These steps are necessary, yet they are reactive measures. From 2005 to 2010, Nigeria routinely produced around 2.2 million barrels per day, sometimes exceeding that figure. The country holds Africa’s largest oil reserves and has been a petroleum producer for decades.

A production level that still falls short of the OPEC quota and is nearly 600,000 barrels below the earlier peak is not a cause for celebration. It underscores how much has been lost and how much work remains.

The most urgent issue is the organised theft of crude oil, which has evolved from isolated local incidents into a large‑scale criminal enterprise involving foreign networks, compromised security officials and influential local actors. Enhanced surveillance and a stronger military presence alone will not resolve the problem. What is required is rigorous prosecution that targets the leaders of these operations, not just those caught at the bottom. Nigeria cannot meaningfully discuss oil‑sector reform while those responsible for large‑scale theft continue to evade accountability.

Re‑winning investor confidence demands more than assurances of security. Ongoing uncertainty over joint‑venture financing, volatile foreign‑exchange policies and sluggish contract approvals continue to deter investors. Businesses seek reliability and clear rules, not merely government statements. Until the operating environment reflects that reality, capital will flow to more predictable jurisdictions.

Infrastructure repairs are equally critical. Aging pipelines, under‑performing export terminals and a virtually non‑existent local refining sector expose Nigeria in ways that rising production figures cannot conceal. Greater alignment between oil production and local refineries would help end the paradox of an oil‑producing nation that still imports large quantities of fuel.

Restoring production to 2.2 million barrels per day would increase government revenue, support the naira, attract investment and create jobs throughout the oil industry. More importantly, it would demonstrate that Nigeria has reclaimed control over its most vital economic resource.

The Tinubu administration deserves recognition, but the focus must extend beyond halting decline. We must fully recover the lost glory. We urge the president, who also serves as Oil Minister, to treat the return to peak production as a priority he must achieve.

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