Nigeria again falls short of OPEC oil production quota

Once again, Nigeria fell short of its crude oil production quota set by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, averaging 1.49 million barrels per day (mbpd) in April, which is below the 1.5 mbpd benchmark.

Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) indicate that the country produced an average of 1,488,540 barrels of crude each day in April, amounting to roughly 99 percent of the OPEC quota. When condensates are added, total daily output rises to 1.66 mbpd.

Last month, the NUPRC reported oil production at an average of 1.8 mbpd. However, the figures released on Tuesday contradict that claim, showing Nigeria remained under its OPEC allocation for the ninth consecutive month since July 2025.

The NUPRC document shows combined crude oil and condensate production peaked at 1.85 mbpd during the month, while the lowest output was 1.46 mbpd. The PUNCH notes that April’s numbers represent a noticeable improvement over March, when oil output stood at 1.55 mbpd.

Nigeria’s oil production has been hampered for years by crude theft, pipeline vandalism, ageing infrastructure, and underinvestment in the upstream sector. Although April’s output improved slightly compared with March, it still fell short of the country’s OPEC target, highlighting ongoing difficulties in raising production despite government efforts to boost volumes.

The PUNCH reports that Nigeria’s crude production in March was 1.38 mbpd. While this reflects a 69,000 bpd increase from the 1.31 mbpd recorded in February, the figure remains 117,000 bpd below the OPEC quota.

February’s data showed a month‑on‑month decline of 146,000 bpd, widening the shortfall from the OPEC allocation. This marked the eighth straight month the country missed the quota since July 2025.

Although Nigeria saw a modest rise in January, with production climbing from 1.422 mbpd in December 2025 to 1.46 mbpd, the gain was short‑lived as output fell sharply in February 2026.

Earlier NUPRC data also revealed a weakening of crude oil production at the end of 2025. Production dropped from 1.436 mbpd in November 2025 to 1.422 mbpd in December, before a slight recovery in January.

In 2025, Nigeria’s crude oil production fell below its OPEC quota in nine months, meeting or marginally exceeding the target only in January, June and July.

The year began strongly for Nigeria, producing 1.54 mbpd in January—about 38,700 bpd above its OPEC allocation. Production then slipped below the quota in February at 1.47 mbpd and fell further in March to 1.40 mbpd, representing one of the widest shortfalls of the year.