Kwankwaso’s Shift From Presidential Bid to Running Mate: Strategic Calculations by Olu Fasan

Lord Palmerston, a 19th‑century British Prime Minister, famously said, “There are no permanent friends or enemies, only permanent interests.” He was referring to international relations. In Nigeria, the phrase has often been used to explain the fluid alliances among politicians, whose actions are frequently guided by personal gain rather than principle.

For example, Bola Tinubu, a prominent figure in Nigerian politics, led the newly formed All Progressives Congress (APC) to meet former President Olusegun Obasanjo in 2014. Tinubu sought Obasanjo’s help in preventing President Goodluck Jonathan’s re‑election, stating, “We are determined to rescue Nigeria. We want you to lead the mission. We want you as the navigator.” Tinubu and Obasanjo had previously been rivals, but their shared interest in removing Jonathan brought them together. Tinubu’s statement, “There are no permanent friends or enemies in politics, but permanent interests,” illustrates his approach.

Tinubu’s political strategy has involved sidelining former allies who have turned against him and rewarding former enemies who become useful. During his tenure as governor and later as president, he appointed former adversaries to ambassadorial posts while marginalizing long‑time supporters who had become critics.

Consider the contrast in birthday greetings: Tinubu sent a congratulatory message to Reno Omokri on his 50th birthday in 2024 but did not address Professor Pat Utomi on his 70th birthday. Omokri, once a critic who publicly questioned Tinubu’s suitability for the presidency, later aligned himself with Tinubu and was appointed ambassador to Mexico. Utomi, a former intellectual leader of the APC who disagreed with Tinubu in 2023, has been publicly criticized by Tinubu’s aides. The differing treatment reflects the alignment of interests rather than personal history.

While Tinubu exemplifies this “no permanent friends or enemies” mindset, the focus of this article is Dr Rabiu Kwankwaso, former governor of Kano State and 2023 presidential candidate for the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP). Kwankwaso recently joined the Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC) alongside former Anambra State governor Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, and has expressed willingness to serve as Obi’s running mate in the 2027 election.

In 2022, Kwankwaso declined to be Obi’s running mate, citing his age, experience, and academic credentials. At 69, Kwankwaso had served as deputy speaker of the House of Representatives, minister of defence, governor, and senator, and holds a PhD in civil engineering. Obi, 64, had held only one political office—governor—and holds a first degree. Kwankwaso argued that Obi should be his running mate, while Obi countered that his business experience outweighed Kwankwaso’s academic and political background. The two therefore held contrasting views on the qualifications for political leadership.

Kwankwaso also noted in 2022 that core Northerners might be reluctant to vote for a presidential candidate from the South‑East, even if he were the running mate. He described South‑East politicians as skilled in business but lacking political experience, stating that “in politics, they are at the bottom.”

In a recent interview on Arise TV’s Prime Time show, Charles Aniagolure asked Kwankwaso whether he would accept Obi’s candidacy for the 2027 election. Kwankwaso answered affirmatively, adding, “Personally, I cannot remember a better combination in terms of doing the right thing for this country.” He cited his daughter’s encouragement and referenced historical collaborations between Northern and South‑East leaders, such as Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe and Sir Tafawa Balewa (1960‑1966) and Alhaji Shehu Shagari and Dr Alex Ekwueme (1979‑1983). He concluded that a strong working relationship could be expected.

The shift in Kwankwaso’s stance can be seen through three strategic considerations. First, supporting a Southern candidate may help maintain Southern influence in the 2027 election, earning Kwankwaso favor in that region. Second, if the Obi‑Kwankwaso ticket wins, Kwankwaso, as vice‑president, would likely become president in 2031 when power returns to the North. Third, if the ticket loses and Atiku Abubakar also does not run in 2031, Kwankwaso could run for president that year, with Obi’s support potentially mobilizing Southern and Middle‑Belt voters. Conversely, if the 2027 ticket fails, Obi might consider partnering with Kwankwaso in 2031, increasing the chances of a win for either party.

Thus, Kwankwaso’s acceptance of a subordinate role in 2027 is portrayed as a calculated move rather than a concession, intended to position both candidates advantageously for future elections.

Dr Fasan is the author of “In The National Interest: The Road to Nigeria’s Political, Economic and Social Transformation,” available at RovingHeights bookstores.

The post From presidential candidate to running mate: Kwankwaso’s strategic calculations, by Olu Fasan appeared first on Vanguard News.