Jonathan’s Unfortunate Déjà Vu Moment

While reading this article, former president Goodluck Jonathan (GCFR) may be contemplating a presidential bid for 2027. As of yesterday, indications suggested that he would run under the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) faction led by Tanimu Turaki, his former Minister of Special Duties and Intergovernmental Affairs. Turaki was expected to chair the committee that would screen Jonathan as the sole candidate for that PDP faction.

Readers may recognize a familiar scenario. Four years ago, a group claiming to represent “Fulani herdsmen” reportedly paid the N100 million All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential expression‑of‑interest and nomination forms for Jonathan. Speculation circulated that former president Muhammadu Buhari, who had taken the presidency from Jonathan in 2015, might have wanted to return the office to him after completing his two terms. It was suggested that Buhari had come to see Jonathan’s potential after a period of doubt.

As Buhari’s tenure approached its end, he reportedly considered handing the presidency to Jonathan to finish the remaining four years before passing the office to a northern successor. However, when Jonathan was unable to secure the APC nomination, Buhari allegedly tried to position Senate President Ahmed Maina Lawan as the APC candidate. The APC’s stronghold on party machinery ultimately secured the ticket for Bola Tinubu, who then won the election with Buhari’s support.

Rumours of Jonathan’s APC ambitions were dismissed by many Nigerians, who were relieved when the plot involving Jonathan and APC National Chairman Abdullahi Mohammed collapsed. The failure of the plan prevented Jonathan from appearing as a candidate backed by the same individuals who had allegedly hired and armed Fulani militias to destabilise his 2015 government. This association would have damaged his personal dignity and reputation.

Another concern was the potential impact on Bola Tinubu if Buhari had succeeded in sidelining him. Tinubu had historically positioned himself to succeed Buhari after the APC’s rise to power, and many feared that a sidelined Tinubu might pursue alternative political strategies.

Jonathan’s recent activities suggest a renewed presidential ambition, particularly after his visit to Tinubu in Aso Villa, Abuja on 22 April 2026. The focus on a faction of the nearly defunct PDP has fueled speculation that Jonathan may be part of a broader strategy to fragment the opposition. With candidates such as Atiku Abubakar (ADC), Peter Obi/Rabiu Kwankwaso (NDC), Seyi Makinde (factional PDP/APM), and now Jonathan (factional PDP) potentially competing against Tinubu and 32 governors, the political landscape for the 2027 election appears highly contested.

Supporters of Jonathan argue that a vote for him would effectively support Tinubu. Some claim that Jonathan seeks to inherit the 12 million votes attributed to Buhari, citing Buhari’s political base. Critics note that Buhari’s performance had eroded his “cult following,” leading him to rely on security forces and a restructured judiciary to secure re‑election in 2019.

Jonathan would face challenges without the Igbo support that was pivotal in his 2011 and 2015 campaigns. In those elections, the Igbo community, through Ohanaeze Ndi Igbo, had officially withdrawn from the presidential race to enable Jonathan’s success. Their support was instrumental in his government’s achievements, including Nigeria’s highest GDP growth under his tenure in 2014. Some argue that if Jonathan had not withdrawn from the 2013 Boko Haram conflict, the situation might have unfolded differently.

There is an Igbo saying that “when the right hand and left hand wash each other, both will be clean.” The Igbo community’s support for Jonathan has extended to his Ijaw allies. With Peter Obi now seen as a strong contender for the presidency, questions arise about reciprocity and political opportunity. Critics suggest that Jonathan’s ambitions may be perceived as a joke in the 2027 election.

Is Jonathan’s ambition worth more than his reputation?

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