How Fubara’s miscalculation alters Rivers politics

By Daniel Abia

The decision was announced on Wednesday, May 20, 2026, and it marked a turning point for many young supporters who had placed their trust in loyalty and followership. The announcement came as Rivers State Governor Siminalayi Fubara withdrew from the All Progressives Congress (APC) governorship primary scheduled for Thursday, May 21.

Fubara justified his withdrawal by citing the need to preserve the peace and unity of Rivers State. “Leadership is ultimately about sacrifice,” he said. “There comes a time when personal ambition must yield to the greater good of the people. Rivers State is bigger than any individual, and at this critical moment, the peace, stability, and unity of our dear state must take precedence over every personal interest.”

He also addressed his supporters, expressing gratitude for their time, resources, prayers, and hope. “I understand the disappointment, the anger, and the pain many of you may feel,” he added. “Not everything a hunter sees in the forest is spoken of in the marketplace. Some truths are best borne quietly, not out of fear, but out of wisdom and restraint for the sake of peace and a greater purpose.”

Before the withdrawal, four aspirants had indicated interest in the gubernatorial primary for the 2027 elections. Three—Fubara, Tonye Cole, and former Commissioner for Works Dr. Dax George Kelly—were from the Kalabari stock, while Hon. Kingsley Chinda, from the Ikwerre stock, emerged as the most controversial candidate and later won the primary unopposed.

Sources say that on Tuesday night, Fubara met with close allies to discuss his plan to skip the primary. His name was found missing from the APC screening committee list, while Dax, Chinda, and Cole were cleared to stand. The three Kalabari aspirants subsequently stepped down, leaving Chinda to dominate the field.

Some observers suggest that Fubara may have anticipated defeat and chose to withdraw to protect his political standing, but the move has left many of his supporters feeling abandoned and has strained his relationship with his base.

The tensions surrounding Fubara began early in his administration in 2023. Over the next few months, the Assembly complex was bombed, and he survived three impeachment attempts. A state of emergency was declared, and he was suspended for six months along with his deputy and the Assembly, yet he remained in office.

In December, Fubara joined the APC in hopes of securing a political reprieve. However, he was never formally received by the national leadership, and his relationship with the state executive committee, led by Chief Tony Okocha—a Wike ally—remained strained.

Of the 23 local government chairmen in the state, 22 are Wike appointees. In the recent APC primary, all of Fubara’s loyalists were disqualified from the House of Assembly, House of Representatives, and Senate races without explanation. Former deputy governor and current senator Dr. Ipalibo Harry Banigo was also disqualified from seeking reelection to the Rivers West senatorial district, a seat now slated for Wike’s ally Felix Obuah.

Even if Fubara had been cleared to run again, he would face significant structural challenges, lacking support at both state and federal levels. Critics argue that this situation could make impeachment a straightforward political process.

Reactions to Fubara’s withdrawal have been mixed. Some view the move as a sacrifice for the state, while others urge caution. Former Ijaw National Congress president Prof. Benjamin Okaba warned that switching parties could lead to impeachment in the Wike-dominated political environment. “The governor’s decision was for the best interest of the people,” he said, adding that state capture by Abuja politicians must be resisted.

Chief Anabs Sara-Igbe of the Pan Niger Delta Elders Forum (PANDEF) expressed uncertainty about the governor’s intentions and cautioned that an Ikwerre candidate from Obio/Akpo would never become governor of Rivers State.

There are also rumors that Fubara may leave the APC for the National Democratic Congress (NDC). This possibility is bolstered by the Federal High Court’s ruling on INEC’s primary timelines and the recent NDC governorship candidacy of Blessing Fubara, allegedly Siminalayi Fubara’s brother. Whether this is a placeholder arrangement remains to be seen.

At present, a wave of defections from the APC to other parties, particularly by Fubara’s disqualified allies, appears imminent. In this period of uncertainty, the focus remains on Rivers State itself, rather than on individual political figures.

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