Dangote Refinery Emerges World’s Biggest Jet Fuel Exporter, Set to Spend $10bn on Expansion

Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery emerged as the world’s largest single exporter of aviation fuel in April, with the company set to spend a fresh $10 billion on its 1.4 million barrels per day expansion drive, according to S&P Global.
The development came after the 650,000 barrels per day refinery attained full operational capacity in February, enabling it to take advantage of supply disruptions triggered by the conflict in the Middle East and significantly boost exports of refined petroleum products to international markets.

The expansion will also require a significant diversification of crude supply sources, with the refinery expected to process a broader range of feedstocks from Africa, the Middle East, the United States and other producing regions, the report noted, disclosing that the facility can refine up to 40 crude blends with plans to expand it to over 100.

Chief Executive Officer of the refinery, David Bird, told Platts that the expansion would further cement the refinery’s position as a major global refining hub and significantly deepen Nigeria’s role in international petroleum products trade.
Bird explained that within weeks of attaining full capacity, the refinery was able to respond swiftly to market shortages by increasing aviation fuel production, helping to fill supply gaps created by the conflict in the Middle East.

Sustaining current run rates demands another order of trading sophistication, testing the limits of Dangote’s logistics, said Bird, who left OQ8, owner of Oman’s Duqm refinery, in 2025 to become the company’s first CEO.
“This is not a traditional refinery in an oil-producing country that just sits on the end of a crude pipeline and processes one crude,” Bird said. “This is a fully merchant refining model that you could see in Europe or Asia,” he added.

After the Middle East war began, Dangote shifted to “max jet mode,” and in April it became the world’s single largest exporter of aviation fuel, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data. The refinery is also producing 200 per cent of its petrol potential by importing blending components like GTL naphtha and Bonny condensate, Bird said. As such, it can “comfortably” make 75 million litres/day (about 650,000 bod), and could do 100 million l/d with better storage infrastructure, he added.

According to the report, other projects would further diversify the feedstock coming into Dangote. In addition to a new linear alkylbenzene plant and diesel hydrotreater, the company is planning to build a new 750,000 metric tonne/year propane dehydrogenation plant, which will process imported LPG and convert it into polypropylene.
Although the Dangote model was designed to process the light sweet crude native to  Nigeria, it has been challenged by what the refinery says is a lack of local supply and poor terminal reliability.

Dangote can now refine 40 different types of crude, but Bird would like to see the number get closer to the 130 used at Singapore’s Pulau Bukom refinery, which he ran between 2012 and 2015, he said.
S&P added that Dangote’s “$10 billion expansion project” will make the refinery capable of processing 1.4 million bpd, equivalent to 90 per cent of Nigeria’s oil output, forcing it to seek new crude streams.

It has so far relied on US WTI Midland crude to supplement local supply, but as it scales up, it can incorporate heavier grades and residues, Bird said. “We will be in the crude blending game,” he said. “So you can easily imagine at 1.4 million bpd we could process 30 per cent Middle Eastern grades on each train,” he explained.

In an interview before the Middle East war began, S&P quoted founder Aliko Dangote as having said that his business was eyeing crudes from countries like the UAE, and would consider Russian oil should sanctions be lifted.
The refinery already has competitive operating costs of under $2.50/b, but the number could drop to $1.50/b post-expansion, he said. South American residues are also being considered, according to Bird.

In time, the company hopes to stimulate regional demand with low-cost fuel. It is finalising approvals for a Namibian tank farm, which it plans to connect to Zambia by pipeline, and is also discussing a Djibouti oil link and storage in Cameroon, according to Bird and Dangote’s Vice President for oil and gas, Devakumar Edwin.
The refinery currently ships half of its production overseas and plans to export all additional products from its expansion to international markets, Edwin said in a separate interview at the site.

“We normally try to avoid stocks in all of the businesses,” Edwin told S&P, explaining a wider Dangote Group ethos of forcing salespersons to move product. However, limited tankage space leaves little margin for error for operators facing “a tsunami of product coming down the pipe every day” and unpredictable truck demand, Bird said.

Consequently, the business is deviating from its existing spot model, managed mostly by international trading companies, to pursue more long-term purchasing commitments from governments, distributors and national oil companies.
“We’ll be making sure that we’re not the supplier of last resort,” Bird said. “We want to start building some of those direct offtake relationships,” he pointed out.

Besides, Bird stated that Dangote has had an influx of requests from African countries and a recent deal with Ethiopian Airlines. In contrast to its early years, the refinery is better positioned to offer competitive credit and payment terms, he added.
The company is also tailoring its port infrastructure to support smaller cargoes and reduce dependence on truck-outs. After hitting constraints with its single-point mooring system, it is developing a four-berth marine jetty to accommodate LR2-size ships and below, Bird stated.

According to him, the refinery expansion will involve “ruthless replication of the existing plant,” partly to cut engineering time. Nevertheless, the second train will likely involve different catalyst choices to meet winter fuel-grade specifications in the Northern Hemisphere, which incur a heavy yield penalty with the current configuration, he said.
Also, the project is being supported by an Initial Public Offer (IPO) later this year, which Dangote hopes will value the business at $40 billion, Edwin said. The company will list 5 per cent-10 per cent of its shares on the Nigerian stock exchange and is considering others, including London and Dubai.