CPPE: Dangote Refinery and Middle East Crisis Drive 37.46% Increase in Petroleum Refining 

Dike Onwuamaeze

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) attributed the 37.46 per cent rise in Nigeria’s petroleum refining sector during the first quarter of 2026 to the opening of the Dangote Refinery and to increased global demand for Nigerian refined products, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the resulting disruptions in the global energy market.

The statement was made in CPPE’s review of the Q1 2026 GDP report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which showed that Nigeria’s real GDP grew 3.89 per cent year‑on‑year, up from 3.13 per cent in Q1 2025.

CPPE Chief Executive Officer Dr. Muda Yusuf highlighted that petroleum refining, real estate, construction and minerals were the sectors that performed strongly in the GDP report.

Yusuf said: “The construction and real estate sectors maintained solid momentum, jointly contributing close to 18 per cent to GDP, reflecting sustained infrastructure investments and growing investor interest in property‑related assets.”

“Particularly noteworthy was the exceptional performance of the oil refining sector that expanded by 37.46 per cent, which was also the strongest growth recorded by any sector in the quarter.”

“This remarkable performance underscores the transformative potential of domestic refining in advancing energy security, deepening import substitution, accelerating industrialisation and conserving foreign exchange.”

He added: “The impressive growth trajectory was also likely supported by elevated regional and global demand for locally refined petroleum products amid persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the resultant disruptions within the global energy market.”

“The exceptional performance of the sector was driven largely by the operations of the Dangote Refinery, whose emergence is increasingly reshaping Nigeria’s energy ecosystem, strengthening domestic value addition and reducing the economy’s dependence on imported petroleum products.”

The CPPE also noted that the quarrying and minerals sector grew by 23.41 per cent, while the cement sector expanded by 11.53 per cent, reflecting robust construction activity in the economy.

Yusuf stated that the manufacturing sector remained fragile despite recording modest growth of 3.29 per cent, up from 1.13 per cent in Q4 2025.