Atiku’s selective memory on zoning, coalition‑building and competence revealed

Charles Odibo

The Big Tent Coalition’s attention has been drawn to a statement attributed to former Vice‑President Atiku Abubakar, published in THISDAY on 12 May 2026 under the headline “Atiku: Zoning Self‑Defeating.” In that piece, Atiku described the widespread call for the 2027 presidential power rotation to Southern Nigeria as “self‑defeating” and “intellectually dishonest.”

Charles Odibo, Director of Media and Communications for the Professor Utomi‑led Big Tent Coalition, says that such remarks would normally not merit a response. However, he argues that the attempt to reshape political history, distort facts, and present personal ambition as a national interest requires a correction of the record.

It is a matter of public record that Atiku Abubakar has been one of the most prominent beneficiaries and practitioners of zoning and presidential rotation in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic. It is therefore noteworthy that a figure who has repeatedly relied on zoning to further his own presidential ambitions now seeks to condemn the principle when it no longer serves his personal goals.

In 2014, Atiku Abubakar led a group of northern Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) leaders in a walkout at the party’s national convention, demanding that the presidency return to the north after the death of President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua and the emergence of President Goodluck Jonathan from the south. Shortly thereafter, Atiku defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC), a party that had explicitly zoned its 2015 presidential ticket to the north. He took part in the APC primaries reserved for northern candidates, finishing a distant third behind Kwankwaso and Buhari. In 2019, Atiku became the PDP presidential candidate under an understood arrangement that power would revert to the north for an eight‑year term. No southern candidate challenged that understanding, unlike Atiku’s own challenge in 2023 and his current stance. At no time during those periods did Atiku label zoning “self‑defeating” or “intellectually dishonest.” The sudden opposition to zoning now that it favours the south suggests selective opportunism, according to Odibo.

The Facts on Rotational Balance

Atiku’s calculation that by 2027 the south will have held power for 18 years and the north for about 10 years is both misleading and factually inaccurate. The actual tenure figures are:

South

Olusegun Obasanjo: 1999–2007 = 8 years

Goodluck Jonathan: 2010–2015 = 5 years

Bola Tinubu: 2023–2027 = 4 years

Total = 17 years

North

Umaru Musa Yar’Adua: 2007–2010 = 3 years

Muhammadu Buhari: 2015–2023 = 8 years

Total = 11 years

Even these numbers omit the broader historical context. At the close of President Buhari’s term in 2023, the south had held power for 13 years, while the north had held it for 11 years—a balance that has been regarded as acceptable within the spirit of rotational presidency. By convention, the south is expected to complete its full eight‑year cycle before the presidency rotates back to the north, a practice that has helped maintain political equilibrium since 1999. Moreover, from independence to the present, the north has ruled Nigeria for a considerably longer period than the south. Odibo asks why Atiku now appears to forget this history.

Atiku’s argument about a “same‑region challenge” conflicts with his claim that no southern opposition candidate can defeat a southern incumbent because “there is no precedent.” In 2019, he contested against President Muhammadu Buhari, a fellow northerner. Odibo questions the consistency of this position: if a northerner may challenge another northerner, why should a southerner be barred from challenging a fellow southerner in 2027?

Odibo also notes that Atiku’s commentary on “coalition‑building” and “electoral arithmetic” does not align with current political realities. Among the leading presumed contenders for 2027, Atiku lacks a viable pathway to victory. The electoral record shows:

2007 Presidential Election

Atiku received roughly 2.6 million votes.

2019 Presidential Election

With Peter Obi as his running mate, Atiku garnered nearly 12 million votes, achieving strong support in the South‑west, South‑south, and about 48 % of the vote in Lagos State. He actually received more votes in the South‑east than in his own North‑east region.

2023 Presidential Election

Without Peter Obi in his coalition, Atiku’s vote total fell to approximately 6.9 million.

These figures indicate that Peter Obi significantly expanded Atiku’s electoral reach in 2019. Odibo asks where Atiku’s southern coalition stands today, and which southern state structures can guarantee him a 25 % share in any of the seventeen southern states. He suggests that Atiku is overlooking these hard electoral realities.

Obi–Kwankwaso Represents the Real National Coalition

By contrast, the emerging Obi–Kwankwaso alliance brings together a robust southern grassroots movement, a strong northern political structure, youth mobilisation, urban middle‑class support, and nationwide populist energy. Odibo describes this as the type of coalition‑building that reflects organic, balanced national politics rather than elite, transactional arrangements repeated each election cycle.

On Competence: Atiku Should Be Careful

Atiku’s attempt to frame the debate around “competence” is, in Odibo’s view, ironic. Compared with other leading contenders for 2023 and 2027, Atiku has the least direct experience in exercising executive authority. As vice‑president, his powers were delegated and contingent on the president’s discretion. In contrast, Peter Obi served as an executive governor with full constitutional authority and accountability, and he has built businesses across multiple sectors. Rabiu Kwankwaso also served as an executive governor and federal minister with direct executive responsibilities.

Even within the Nigeria Customs Service, Atiku never attained the top operational post of Comptroller‑General before leaving public service. Odibo asks what basis Atiku has for the competence argument, noting that competence should be measured by demonstrable governance outcomes, fiscal discipline, institutional reform, and prudent resource management.

The Bigger Issue: National Unity and Fairness