Accountability in Party Primaries

REUBEN ABATI

When the Electoral Act 2026 was enacted in February 2026, it was expected to be the deus ex machina—the fool‑proof solution to Nigeria’s electoral woes since the return to civilian rule in 1999. Instead, the new law followed the same incomplete and inadequate pattern as its predecessors, raised questions about its intentions, and created fresh problems. By next year, another round of electoral reform will likely be discussed, but it will not resolve the core issues. Laws alone do not guarantee credible and transparent elections; the problem lies with the people, the institutions, the processes, and the politicians themselves. No law can prevent sabotage, compromise, or violation. The ongoing party primaries for the 2027 elections illustrate that politicians have not learned any lessons and are not ready to change.

Nigeria remains a country driven by personal ambition and the pursuit of power. Reform is resisted even when the incumbent administration promotes it as a slogan. The 2027 process risks becoming a gamble where the most privileged and cunning secure elite enrichment, while ordinary citizens have no input. I have argued elsewhere that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is emerging as the owner of the game, not because his party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), is the best, but because he has used incumbency to create an impression of momentum that undermines other parties—20 additional ones. I have also suggested that a Bola Ahmed Tinubu School of Politics and Strategy is forming before our eyes. The values, motivations, and curriculum of that school are not the focus here; you may form your own conclusions.

In recent days, party primaries have been held ahead of the January 2027 elections. The PDP, APC, and ADC are among the parties that have conducted or will conduct primaries. Despite a recent Federal High Court ruling by Justice Mohammad G. Umar in Abuja that nullified INEC’s membership deadline, parties are expected to finish their nomination processes by May 30. For now, parties are following the status quo ante bellum, but the APC concluded its primaries on May 23, the PDP on May 26, the Labour Party on May 29, the NNPP on May 26, and the SDP and ADC on May 28. The primaries have been marked by protests, confusion, violence, and intra‑party crises, raising fears and anxieties about the 2027 process and reaffirming that Nigeria is a country searching for citizens and patriots. Elite competition has become a matter of selfish interest, leaving the people sidelined and disillusioned. Hunger, apathy, cynicism, resignation, and acquiescence have all contributed to this situation.

On Saturday, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his wife, Senator Remi Tinubu, attended the APC Presidential Primary at Ward E in Ikoyi, Lagos State. He was present throughout the APC primaries in Lagos and tried to avoid disrupting traffic, although some APC supporters occupied the frontage of his Bourdillon Street house, arriving in buses and with walking sticks in anticipation of Sallah gifts. The President described the primaries as “peaceful and well‑organized,” citing “internal democracy” within the APC, and expressed satisfaction with the performance of state governors in accreditation, membership registration, and delegate accreditation. He said, “I’m just excited. They challenge me more.” Supporters within the APC, including about 31 governors and the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike (who has ties to both PDP and APC), backed him. Tinubu recorded a landslide victory in his party’s presidential primaries, confirming his intention to run for a second term. The opposition’s plan to unite behind a single candidate collapsed, another masterstroke by President Tinubu.

The APC Presidential primaries took place across 8,809 wards in 36 states and the FCT. Tinubu won 10,999,967 votes, announced by Senator Pius Anyim Anyim at the Tinubu International Conference Centre in Abuja on Sunday, May 23. The announcement was made in a building named after Tinubu himself. To lend legitimacy, Tinubu was challenged by Stanley Osifo from Edo State, described as an “obscure businessman.” Tinubu received about 11 million votes; Osifo received 16,504 votes and zero votes in several states, including Kwara, Ebonyi, Gombe, Sokoto, Rivers, Edo, Delta, and Kogi. Osifo’s participation was seen as courageous, though he paid N100 million into APC coffers for the contest. He should be refunded, and if the party refuses, President Tinubu should acknowledge his effort. Osifo’s willingness to engage in what many saw as a futile exercise demonstrates boldness.

Other APC members who switched parties in hopes of rewards were disappointed. Before the primaries, the APC had 242 House members and 88 Senators; over 70 of them will not be part of the 2027 process. Fourteen key APC Senators failed to secure return tickets. Dr. Ajibola Bashiru, APC Secretary General, said results would be declared centrally, but many ignored him. Results were collated on site, and losers have appealed to the party’s administrative system. A recent ruling allows them to move to other parties until September 2026 because INEC acted ultra vires regarding Section 29(1) of the Electoral Act, but they should not be overly optimistic. INEC is set to challenge Justice Umar’s judgment. President Tinubu claimed the primaries were “peaceful and well organized,” yet protests, cash inducement, and violence marked the process. In Ondo Central, Senator Adeniyi Adegbonmire nearly lost his life when gunmen hijacked the process at Okilisa Ward 5 in Akure. In Rivers State, Governor Simi Fubara was screened out due to falling out of favor with a godfather who is not an APC member but a friend of the APC President. In Surulere Constituency 1 in Lagos, Desmond Elliot has been inconsolably upset after his local godfather decided he should be replaced. Seven serving governors and 12 former governors plan to run for the Senate on the APC platform, highlighting the Senate as a retirement home for governors. Aggrieved members can file petitions; five have already come from Delta State. Many APC members have lost faith in the party’s system. During the primaries, officiating teams failed to count properly; there were no registers, no proper checks, and members simply showed up while officials jumped from 1, 11, 20, to 1,000, 5,000, defying basic arithmetic. Section 84(2) of the Electoral Act 2026 prescribes consensus and direct primaries to avoid the menace of selected delegates and open the process, but even this new formula has been openly fraudulent.

Other parties are not immune. The African Democratic Congress (ADC) held two congresses. Dumebi Kachikwu was declared the presidential candidate of one faction, while the David Mark faction chose from a list of three: Atiku Abubakar, Rotimi Amaechi, and Mohammed Hayatudeen. In the ADC primaries, disputes arose in Kano, Benue, and Plateau states. In Adamawa, former Governor Muhammadu Jibrilla Bindow withdrew from the governorship process, causing an upset. At the time of writing, Atiku Abubakar appears to be coasting to victory in the ADC presidential primary in Bauchi, Zamfara, Kaduna, Niger, Kebbi, Abia, Gombe, Sokoto, Enugu, and other states. The fate of former Governor/Minister Rotimi Amaechi, who says he is in the race to become President, remains unclear. The ADC failed simple arithmetic, undermining its moral right to criticize the APC. Similar battles, court drama, and defections are expected in other parties, but Nigeria’s professional political class has yet to learn any lessons and may never do so. The people, compromised, often do the bidding of the highest bidder during political seasons, indifferent to the suffering that follows. Pundits predicted voter apathy, but primaries across Nigeria have not shown it. However, this does not guarantee the absence of apathy in the 2027 general elections. The factions in the ADC and PDP will soon begin fresh battles, court drama, and defections.

Overall, the political party primaries reveal significant concerns and anxiety about what lies ahead. Parties have failed their members; the people have failed themselves. A heavy atmosphere of mistrust and anger has emerged, and accountability and integrity have been tested. With President Tinubu’s 11 million votes in the APC—far more than his 8,805,475 votes in the 2023 presidential election—he is expected to receive more votes in the 2027 general election from INEC’s original electorate of about 94 million voters. Tinubu gained more votes in Imo, Adamawa, and Gombe, and scored less in the South West, except for Lagos. This suggests a demonstration effect and an auto‑suggestion in the strategy. Yet a party primary may not reflect the outcome of a general election, which will be guided by competition, ethnicity, religion, money, geopolitical interventions, turnout, institutions, and especially the electoral umpire. Nigeria’s resilience and the people’s endless optimism remain its strengths. The country has a pattern of approaching the precipice and pulling back from the brink at the people’s expense. The same pattern may repeat in 2027, revealing that the biggest area in need of reform has been left behind.